Re: David Patent (922 Views)
Posted by:
Marc At (IP Logged)
Date: May 30, 2002 03:05PM
HP wrote:
"How about 'using' eight horses in exotics in a twelve horse field?"
Ok, let's say, for the sake of argument, that Ragozin is wrong about EVERYTHING having to do with variant-making, censorship, and whatever else you can up with.
But I gotta admit, I don't really understand the complaint I've just quoted, and how it raises the ire of so many, both here and elsewhere.
There's a 12 horse field. You throw out 4 horses because you hate their lines, or because they're terrible underlays. Preferably both. You key the right overlay, use perhaps 3 horses in second, and 4 more in third. 8 horses. That's 1x3x6. Then perhaps you use your key horse in second, flipping the other 3 to the top spot. Another 1x3x6. Another 18 units. A total of 36 units, which by my way of thinking is a pretty conservative play, presuming your key is some sort of juicy overlay.
Not to be a Friedman apologist, really, but when a horseplayer says: "key" I know what the horseplayer means. When a horseplayer says: "strong use in exotics," I know what he means. When a horseplayer says "light use in the exotics," or "use defensively," I know what it means to me at least.
Consistently, some moron at the Rag site will say to Friedman, "hey, nice job, you hit it," and Friedman will reply with: no, I didn't. He doesn't claim to hit races he hasn't, as far as I can tell. Or if he has done that, it certainly hasn't happened recently.
I understand if you like it how on T-graph's analysis they offer up really narrow plays. Cool. But my impression is that Friedman plays a lot of triples, and when he's looking at a race, he's starting with different categories: key, light use, heavy use, defensive use, and throwout. And then these are all filtered through the actual post-time odds, of course.
I just don't understand how any successful horseplayer looks at a race a day in advance all that differently...
8 horses "used in exotics" in a 12 horse field? In triples, sure. In exactas, you'll be narrowing it down based on odds, keying one with as many as 4 or 5 others if the price merits...
Can we eliminate this from the list of Friedman's heinous crimes?
Or am I missing something?