I read his post when he posted it, and I don't care if he agrees or not.
like I said, I was almost going to raise this point over there, but at the last second I decided this was more pointless clutter than conversation.
maybe I'll see if any points come up here, and repost over there later for his comments.

I'll go horse by horse, w/the 'fantasy' figure being the point and a half subtraction.
please tell me where you disagree:

BRUMMY - 4yo off break, w/fairly ugly 10 top at 3, closing out 3yo year w/cripply backwards line.
real fig = effort of 11
fantasy = new top 9"
given that this is off a layoff, I don't think it has much in the way of predictive reliability, but as far as probability, I'd personally lean towards 'real fig' here.
winner = REAL fig

BLOCKADE RUNNER - 4yo moving backwards off big 10 tops end of 3yo line.
maybe circling back, maybe not.
real fig = intermediate 16+
fantasy = intermediate 15-
no opinion

TIPICAL PIPP - 4yo drifting back off 3pt top of 15- a couple months ago.
real fig = 19+, worst in recent pattern
fantasy = 18-, also worst (by a point) recently.
no real opinion, but considering the negative line, I'd really lean towards real fig again.
but, I'll call this one a wash.

EARTODAY - don't see much predictive ability off 2 numbers.
real fig - fractional new top of 15-, 2nd lasix.
fantasy - nearly 2 pt new top.
w/the short pattern and lasix, I'd call this a coin flip, w/real fig being at least as likely.

SA AD - 5yo a couple weeks off 1/2 pt new top of 11".
nice #, but the horse hasn't put good #'s together in the past, and the timing's short.
real fig - half pt drift back to 12
fantasy - another new top of 10"
I'd say the drift back is more likely on that line, although fantasy wouldn't surprise.
winner = REAL fig

TACTICAL - 2nd out 4yo w/some time between races.
real fig = repeat effort of 1st out (17-).
fantasy = fractional new top from out of nowhere of 15+.
winner = REAL fig

PULVERIZING - irrelevant x

YANKEE - gappy 4yo drifting back after repeating big 3 yo top of 13.
real fig = continued drift (18" from 17) in 2nd race off big pop.
fantasy = pairing of last effort (17) off big pop.
winner = REAL fig

POWER BOOST - 4yo bouncing off top.
no opinion.

CAPTAIN - short line 3yo drifting back off big lasix pop top.
real fig = another worst # in recent line horse w/a 14- off pop 10 and drift back 12".
fantasy = 12+, which would actually be slightly better (or pairing of) than the last effort of 12".
winner = REAL fig in a landslide.

LONGONOT - x'ing, no opinion.

RUN RICO - ditto

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as you can see, my own subjective view is that REAL fig is more likely in 5 out of 12 horses, w/the other 7 being indeterminate.
I have no idea where either one of you came up w/subtracting anything.