Michael D. wrote:
>
> As for your theories on changing track variants, I tend to
> agree with everything you have stated. I would, however, like
> you to clarify your theory which states that "groups of
> horses don't do unusual things". If a group of seven three
> year old fillies goes in a mile and a sixteenth race, six of
> whom are stretching out for the first time, isn't it possible
> that the group as a whole COULD back up big time. Sure, I
> agree that a group of seven older allowance horses is
> unlikely to bounce as whole, but for the younger horses (ie.
> two and three year olds trying longer distances for the first
> time) I tend to think that "unusual things" could happen to
> the group as a whole. Could you guys make a comment on this
> point. Thx

TG--Absolutely. That's why it's tricky making figures for maidens on the grass, where lots of horses are trying turf for the 1st time.

In general, you gather as much info as possible (surrounding distance/grass races), and work your way through all the possibilities. In the situation you descibe I would lean on other info more unless there is a variant which clearly fits very well with several fillies. By the way, most days don't call for doing anything outrageous.



TGJB