Re: jerry + belmont contest (971 Views)
Posted by:
Jason L. (IP Logged)
Date: June 03, 2002 07:59PM
You partly make my point. When I talk about handicapping ability, I include betting style. In my experience betting style will have at least as much to do with turning a proft than an informational advantage. Further, in So. Cal., if you try to handicap with the sheets, without also taking into account trainers, you are doomed. Unfortunately, the increase in purses (which leads owners to run horses less often) and the influx of legal and illegal drugs (which makes horses faster, but inconsistent over the long run) is making this more and more true in other parts of the country as well. Thus, being a good sheet reader is not the only variable (though obviously important or would not spend the $30.00) in being a good handicapper. [Frankly, this is even more true with horse buying, which is why I put little stock in either of your success in that arena as telling me much of anything useful].
Thus, I still stand by the fact that any handicapping contest (even if long) is invalid as a predictor of the better sheet. That is because I define "better" as accurate and unfortunately "accuracy" could not be reasonably measured without scientific studies and neutral statistical analysis, both of which would be very expensive (even if not possible) and not likely to be commissioned and shared by either party.