In races like the Belmont, where all of the horses are trying something for the first time, isn't the "bounce theory" a bit less relevant than usual. Does it matter if a horse has a 1-0-3 pattern or a 3-2-1, or any other combination? If WE has the heart and stamina to get the extra quarter mile, he will run well. I am guessing that the horses who show a few fast figures (in any pattern) and relish the extra distance will be competitive. Can a firm "bounce" believer tell me how they can handicap the race based on a pattern, without taking into account the huge change in race conditions.