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Re: TGJB (1029 Views)
Posted by: superfreakicus (IP Logged)
Date: June 04, 2002 03:52AM

I wouldn't say he has NO variant.
apparently, he's got 9 variants on 9 races for each card.
he bases each variant on what #'s he projects for each group of 5 or 6 horses.
which is why I find it so odd that he gives out terrible picks using his own data, and invited him to the contest.
in handicapping any given race, he must simply project the #'s each runner produces on that day ---- the exact same thing he's doing 100's of times a day already.
the only difference is, instead of using this process to pencil in new #'s, he's crafting wagers w/it.
you'd think a guy who could create such 'tight' peter pan #'s would be like nostradamus at the windows.

anyway.....
let me get back to the original question that guy asked about the bounce thing in the belmont.

first, let me present my philosophical 'credentials'.
a few years back, I was as much into breeding as anybody you could find.
I picked horses in dec. and jan. based on breeding (sea hero, go for gin), I was into dosage, the whole deal.
I even used the t-bred register to create this bigass family tree of all t-breds back to the 1800's.
I was a huge fan of breeding and the triple crown.
now, along comes len friedman, and while I won't put words in his mouth, he was a little skeptical of all that extraneous stuff, and relied mostly on sheet patterns.
I think he mostly looks at the derby as just another race, as opposed to some back breaking distance --- and after all, the derby is also at a distance these horses haven't run at (like the belmont).
in particular, when he spoke positively of a horse like Dance Floor, I scoffed.

as the years have rolled by, I notice more and more that these triple crown events DO play out like any other race.
the patterns hold up, and the breeding angles don't --- after all, are these horses really bred so differently?
just take a look at Came Home in the derby, as example.
the fact is, that before the derby and belmont everybody's got breeding angles.
the ones that pan out are remembered, and the many failures are forgotten.

I think the belmont distance makes little difference, other than as a handicapper's bogeyman, and as an exacerbating factor in expected x's, as mentioned in other posts.



Subject Written By Posted
Moving On (1628 Views) David Patent 06/03/2002 03:59PM
Re: Moving On (915 Views) HP 06/03/2002 05:07PM
Re: Moving On (1016 Views) David Patent 06/03/2002 06:00PM
Re: Moving On (976 Views) TGJB 06/03/2002 06:45PM
Re: Moving On (969 Views) Michael D. 06/03/2002 07:11PM
Re: Moving On (990 Views) superfreakicus 06/03/2002 07:19PM
Belmont Patterns (986 Views) David Patent 06/03/2002 07:46PM
Re: Belmont Patterns (1012 Views) TGJB 06/03/2002 09:35PM
Re: Belmont Patterns (975 Views) David Patent 06/03/2002 10:16PM
Re: Belmont Patterns (1040 Views) TGJB 06/03/2002 11:34PM
Re: Belmont Patterns (999 Views) Jason L. 06/04/2002 12:34AM
Re: Moving On (1020 Views) HP 06/03/2002 07:50PM
TGJB (924 Views) Point Given Gal-Michelle 06/03/2002 07:24PM
Re: TGJB (1029 Views) superfreakicus 06/04/2002 03:52AM
Re: Moving On (891 Views) TGJB 06/03/2002 09:30PM
Re: Moving On (997 Views) Alydar in California 06/04/2002 06:45AM
Re: Moving On (985 Views) David G. Patent 06/04/2002 12:33PM
Re: Moving On (986 Views) TGJB 06/04/2002 04:43PM
Re: Moving On (994 Views) Alydar in California 06/04/2002 11:30PM


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