What About The Figures? (1299 Views)
Posted by:
Mall (IP Logged)
Date: June 09, 2002 01:31PM
I used both to handicap the 1st 9 races on Sat's card & made 3 serious bets. Realizing that it's opinion to a certain extent, but trying to be as objective as possible, this is how I saw it:
1. Draw. Bel B looked about the same on both.
2. Draw. Winner was not a sheets play, although I noticed that Rags did not pick up on the fact that Brightest Ice was gelded between races. I wish I hadn't either.
3. Clear Advantage TG. 34-1 Sherpa Guide showed a fwd moving line with competitive nos on TG & was an 0-2 which looked too slw on Rags.
4. Draw. Too Scarlet was slower on Rags but was playable on both.
5. Draw. 29-1 Judge Case was playable on both.
6. Draw. 2-1 Explicit was not a great play on either, depending on how you viewed his last race.
7. Draw. Babae was a very strong play on both, particularly at 3-1. 2n place finisher Tates Creek looked better on TG but did not make sense at the price IMHO.
8. Draw. This one is tricky because it depends on how much blind faith you have in the bounce theory as it applies to a race like this. I have very little & I thought Gygistar was a stickout at 4-1 on both, given that YG looked like a toss on both. However, Gyg looked less likely to bounce on Rags.
9. Clear Advantage TG. BH looked like a stickout on TG, even at the low odds, while (as Tabi pted out) Rags had him regressing in his last, a G1 win. Hap looked best on Rags. Both had 7 yr old WA as a strong bounce candidate, putting the kabosh on my latest exception involving a particular 7 yr old trained by a Hall of Famer who hasn't bounced despite many sheet players' predictions over a 2 yr period.
When I did this at Kee for 75 races it seemed a lot easier & less time consuming & the differences were a lot more dramatic. While I still think an extended trial would be worthwhile, it's going to be a lot more difficult than I originally thought.
though many