To try to get a handle on ThoroPatterns and what they have to tell me, I exhausted my Redboard rights for February collecting information on as many dirt patterns as possible. While much of what I found is probably well-known to experienced TG users, I'm posting the results for anyone else who might be interested. I'd also welcome the comments/criticism of experienced users.

Dirt patterns on February sheets are presented for three age groups: Jan.-Mar. 3yos; Jan.-Mar. 4yos; and Jan.-Mar. 5yos and up. For each age group there are 64 possible patterns. Of those, I found info on 61 patterns for 3yos, 62 patterns for 4yos, and 54 patterns for 5yos and up. (Most of the missing patterns for 5yos and up are those that involve one or more Tops.) I evaluated patterns based on the percentage of Pairs or better they produce. On this basis, the best pattern is 3yos who have run Pair-Pair-Pair. ThoroPattern indicates that their next race is a new Top or another Pair 72% of the time.

One thing I found is that the same patterns that are strong for 3yos are also strong for the other two age groups. For example, Pair-Pair-Pair is the strongest pattern for all three age groups, and X-X-X is the weakest pattern for all three age groups. The difference is that, for any given pattern, 3yos generally produce a higher percentage of Pairs or Tops than 4yos, and 4yos produce a higher percentage of Pairs or Tops than 5yos and up. This doesn't seem surprising, given that 3yos are generally on the improve, while older horses are generally in decline.

In terms of what patterns are strong, a Pair is generally the strongest possibility at any position in the pattern. More specifically, if I group the patterns based on the most recent race, patterns that end in -Pair are stronger than patterns that end in -Top, -Off, or -X. If I group patterns based on the most recent two races, patterns that end in Pair-Pair, are stronger than those that end in Top-Pair, Off-Pair, or X-Pair. Similarly, patterns that end in Pair-Off are stronger than those that end in Top-Off, Off-Off, or X-Off. Even when I look at the third race back, Pair is the best option. For example, for all three age groups, Pair-Off-X, is better than Top-Off-X, Off-Off-X, or X-Off-X. (I wasn't really expecting this; I thought the third race back might be inconsequential.) Just as a Pair is strong, an X is generally the weakest possibility at any position in a pattern.

My conclusion from this is that the strength or weakness of a pattern corresponds primarily to what it tells you about the horse's ability/fitness level. A horse that has run Pair-Pair-Pair has run his top at least four times, including the last three times in a row. This indicates to me that his Top is well within his scope, and not something that he can achieve only on good days or in a favorable race scenario.

Some theories about patterns I have read in posts seem not to be justified. For example, some horses are said to alternate good and bad races. If that were true, you would expect X-Off-X (Off is due) to be a stronger pattern than Off-X-Off (X is due), and Off-Pair-Off to be a stronger pattern than Pair-Off-Pair. Neither is true.

I have also read it suggested that a horse running a new Top and Pairing it once or twice is due for a bounce. In fact, Top-Pair-Pair is the second strongest pattern for all three age groups.