In this weeks ROTW analysis was the following interesting statement:

"It’s highly doubtful Repent will back up here but he is getting down to levels which are exorbitantly fast for young 3yr-olds. His pattern does not lead one to project a bounce at all but the sheer performance level itself may be too fast for his good and may cause a reaction because he’s not physically capable of withstanding the stress induced by such big efforts. Again, his pattern doesn’t lead to that speculation, the performance level does."

Particularly interesting are the words, "his pattern doesn’t lead to that speculation, the performance level does."

This raises all sorts of questions.

At what performance level (if any) do you start to expect a reaction even with a strong pattern?

Are there some "constants" that even the fastest, fittest, and strongest horses cannot exceed (regardless of pattern) without inducing a reaction?

Are those constants changing over time (I know that sounds like an oxymoron) as horses seem to be getting faster and faster at a younger age?

If such constants exist, what are those "dangerous" performance levels as a function of age, sex, surface, etc. Wouldn't it be useful to have a set of guidelines (not rules) to help in analyzing a horse like Repent?

In the past on this board, we have discussed some possible constants such as a negative number or three straight negative numbers for any horse, sub-6 for a 2yo, etc.

I would be interested in hearing other thoughts on similar constants along with any facts and data to back them up.

Chris