I think you are onto something Tready but it is very difficult to quantify. On Repent and Siphonic, it depends on how the rest of the field shapes up. If it works out (unlikely) that they can loaf on the lead for awhile, it may help them, and then you're tossing a horse that you KNOW is fast enough to win.

I will try to imagine how the pace shapes up but I would be reluctant to make this the primary reason to eliminate a horse that figures. Sometimes a race is loaded with speed and everyone decides to lay back and the one horse who sticks to his style and gets an easy lead has an unforseen advanatage. Young horses can learn how to do new things and surprise you with an unexpected change in tactics. These are just a few of the ways I've gotten screwed out of decent scores by elevating pace over other factors. This isn't usually the case in the Derby, but it's tough for me to make pace the primary consideration under MOST circumstances.

That said, I'm sure there are some people who make a living on nothing BUT pace considerations. HP