Re: assorted bs (997 Views)
Posted by:
superfreakicus (IP Logged)
Date: June 15, 2002 03:36PM
""I don't play publically acclaimed favorites". No real thought involved. You wager stictly upon a premise that even if the favorite wins the odds will be too low to warrant wagering upon that favorite. So you toss most all 6-5 horses and wager on those with big chances."
that is true, I do.
I also toss easy throwouts like war emblem.
" Horses like Perfect Dread. Oh sure I think he was better than he showed, but who really thought he had a prayer to get 12 marks with courage at the end?"
apparently, a lot of people did.
that's why his price was so terrible, forcing me to go w/medaglia as a key at 16-1.
maybe you'd like to show me some examples of people who thought he couldn't get the distance --- because the way I remember it, everybody thought he was the best bred to handle it.
not that I pay much attention to that anymore.
by the way, what kind of 'courage' are we talking about?
the kind medaglia showed facing adversity in the derby to run 4th, or the kind war emblem showed, coughing it up while facing very similar adversity in the belmont?
(not that I use 'courage' to handicap)
"No Superman, we both lost the Belmont, my horse just always had a bigger chance than yours is all."
didn't look like it to me.
but, I wasn't using binoculars.
ps
as for my picks, I actually DID post a few in the CD pick 4 thread.
unfortunately, they turned up fairly chalky, for me, but maybe I can squeeze out a little value here or there.
maybe you'd like to add your analysis to the thread....