The computer model says Parade Leader is a big overlay. His –2.25 top at the weights with a pattern that seems pointed towards a good effort gives him an excellent chance to lead the parade to the wire in this very competitive field. The computer also says that Dollar Bill and Connected might be able to fill-out some big exotic payoffs. Congaree and Street Cry look dangerous but also look like big underlays. If the computer odds-line for this race is any good, Parade leader looks like a very solid play.

The big negative for Parade Leader is his running style. He needs a solid pace up front and he may not get it. Pat Day and Craig Perret are both cagey veterans that are very likely to slow it down early. If they do, Parade Leader will have his work cutout for him trying to run them down late.

Good luck to all.

Chris

******
Horse followed by "break even" odds generated by the computer model:

Congaree, 7.7
Tenpins, 9.5
Connected, 6.3
Street Cry, 5.8
Proper Man, 19.8
Dollar Bill, 5.7
Unshaded, 51.8
Parade Leader, 2.5