I hate long threads, time to start a new one....

HP, in re-reading your comments I see you were talking on a much more general scale than I was thinking. I was referring to using this type of analysis strictly for the Derby, I agree in most other cases there is some merit to pace analysis at a very small extent, but in the Derby it is much more important for identifying horses that may/may not get the stretched out distance or may be subject to fatigue becuase of a hard-run campaign of front-end running races.

Really the only other place I give pace this much stock is in 6.5F races down the turf at Santa Anita. Throw out the TG numbers here, find the horse who is running at the end and you can get some real bombs (not always the winner, but in the trifecta at nice prices). For instance, the $68 winner yesterday had the 2nd highest BRIS late pace figure in the field. In route races, I do the exact opposite, throw out the pace numbers and use the TG figs, maybe with a small adjustment if there is a horse likely to be alone on the lead. There the TG #s are rock solid (leading me to that beautiful $4100 trifecta on Sat).

I read the Brohammer book, in general I like some of the Sartin theroy, but think the figure making for handicapping is garbage. Keep the calculator at home. BRIS already gives you everything you really need, given that their pace figures probably do not include adjustments for ground loss either. Having a general idea of the pace scenario and identify running style is one thing, but taking the time to calculate the exact feet per second and energy used is worthless. Especially when you only pick one race to do it, how do I pick the right race? Am I saying I expect the horse to run the same race today? To me, this in an exercise in what the horse has already done, not what can he do today, and that is a recepie for failure in my book.