Let me humbly suggest that you're missing Catalin's very important point. Assume, for sake of argument, that Catalin, Robes(Spain did not represent any value) & I were all wrong about Spain's actual chance of winning the race. That would only mean that we were wrong about a particular race & perhaps need to improve our handicapping. That wouldn't change the fact that the overall approach Catalin is suggesting is the one & only way to achieve a long term positive roi. Every study & every serious treatise says essentially the same thing, namely that an above average value handicapper will do better than an excellent selection handicapper over any extended period. IMHO, it is hubris for anyone to suggest or believe that he or she is the one handicapper for whom the laws of mathematics do not apply.

BTW, I did not mean to suggest that I was of the opinion that a horse running in foal has no chance to win a race, although I have yet to meet a horsemen who viewed it as a positive. My pt was that someone who was holding himself out as an expert did not know this very basic & very public bit of info.