"True Odds" might not be a technically accurate way to describe a particular dopester's judgment on each horse's percentage chance to win a particular race, although I'd like to think that my odds line is based on something more than ignorance. The fact that all of us are fallible, not to mention the randomness of racing itself, is in my view the strongest argument in favor of developing one's skill at making such judgments & only betting when the public's view is different enough to create a large enough edge, i.e. overlay, to make up for the inevitable mistakes & unpredictable results. To answer your question, if there was some way that I knew in advance to an absolute certainty that a particular horse was going to win a specific race, I would take whatever odds are offered. Now I have a question. Isn't it about time for you to venture out of Calif & test your wits against the best of the best at Sar? That free beer from Phil is going to go down awfully easy after the card.