Below is an odds-line that was developed using a sheets-based, "Monte Carlo" computer model. The primary data input are TG figs.

The odds shown next to each horse represents the model's estimate of the "break even" odds for each horse. If the horse goes off at higher odds than shown below, then that horse is an considered an overlay according to the model and vice versa.

The model indicates that Transcendental is a big overlay and the obvious key in the race.
The other 4 contenders are Shiny Band, Raging Fever, Mystic Lady and Critical Eye. Based on the morning line, Shiny Band, Raging Fever and Mystic Lady are likely underlays while Critical Eye is a likely overlay.

I have also included some of the relevant "break even" $2 exacta prices produced by the model.

Good luck to all.

Chris

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Win Odds Line:

Hope's Expectation, 107/1
Shiny Band, 4.0
Critical Eye, 5.8
Mystic Lady, 6.6
Happily Unbridled, 23/1
Too Scarlet, 60/1
Two Item Limit, 53/1
Raging Fever, 4.8
Transcendental, 2.8

"Break Even" $2 Exacta Payoffs

Trans/Shiny, $37
Trans/Eye, $39
Trans/Mystic, $52
Trans/Fever, $31

Shiny/Trans, $55
Eye/Trans, $71
Mystic/Trans, $85
Fever/Trans, $59