OK, you guys have really got me thinking about the right way to articulate this, so I'll try to take a shot. Granted this may be giving away some trade secrets, but what the hell.

The basic premise here is all based on what is the affect of pace on what TG# a horse MIGHT BE ABLE TO RUN TODAY. This type of analysis should be done in coordination with, not exclusive from, other TG methodology from pattern reads, bounce projects, etc.

SITUATIONS WHERE PACE CAN LEAD TO A SMALL TG ADJUSTMENT

1) As mentioned in earlier posts, the clearest example of this is a horse who will be on the lead alone, or possibly be able to save ground because of speed. I'm thinking back to the Breeder's Cup Turf that Buck's Boy won. That year there were many horses right around the 4 range, but Bucks Boy was a lone speed play and that caused me to expect a better number out of him than his competetors.

2) A pace analysis determines there will be TOO MANY horses near the lead. This leads to speed duels and horses tiring more quickly than normal. A great example of this was this year's SA Big Cap. Several horses appeared capable of running a 2, leading to a very difficult looking race on TG #s. A pace analysis, however, showed that there would be lots of horses on the front end, likely to tire each other out. I used Futural, Cagney, and Milwaukee Brew in my pick3s and pick4s. Why? Because they had the highest late-end BRIS pace ratings. Actually Milwaukee Brew had earned a 127 late pace rating in his last race, which had been the highest of all the contenders.

SITUATIONS WHERE PACE CAN LEAD TO AN ABNORMALLY LARGE TG ADJUSTMENT

1) A horse running longer than ever previously attempted and has larger late-end pace figures. The most common occurance of this is in younger horses, frequently in maiden races. A horse may look awful on a TG sheet, but if the races were all sprints with pace figures that look like (60-70-90), there's a good chance for a dramatic, abnormal improvement when stretching out.

The converse is also true of those horses streching out who run more on the front end. The derby is a great example of this where you see horses with solid lines but front-end loaded pace figures throw in a double-digit effort.

2) Horses shortening up after a route or series of routes. These are great horses to play when the pace figures look like (90-90-50) on a route and that probably equates to a 15 on TG, but now in a 6 furlong race there is a potential for a large jump up because you can tell from previous pace figures that the horse will greatly appreciate the long distance.

3) Tracks with severe speed/rail biases. This years FG meet and previous Keenland meets come to mind. Find the horse that will be fast enough to get to the rail and even if the TG figures are horrible, you may catch a bomb in the trifecta.

4) Horses coming down the 6.5 turf at Santa Anita that have larger back-end pace figures. I LOVE these races, this has been my bread and butter this winter. Speed is WAY overbet (and not helpful) in these races.

Hope this is a little more helpful summary...