I think you both have valid points. An unknown trainer with a firster that is bet fairly strong might be telegraphing intent. However, sometimes the public goes crazy in their zeal to bet on a firster when a tip gets widespread. This Wednesday at Hollywood they bet down a firster to 4/5 when the trainer was 2 for 51 with first time out horses! I bet against the horse and it finished out of the money after fading from the lead. You have to end up long term loser betting horses like this.

I only bet a horse blindly if I am pretty sure that it will be at least 5-1 and I think it should be the favorite. That means it is at least 8-1 on the morning line, no favorites are early scratches and almost no one in the form has picked the horse. I have bet way too many horses that I thought were 3-1 and better and then saw on equibase that they went off at 3/2. I occassionally miss a $28 payoff but think I am ahead in the long run. Of course, I try to only bet when I am a casino or track and can see current odds.