We had a discussion about that 6 yr old gelding a few weeks ago. I think the sire was Double Negative. A few of us noticed the early money. I never noticed the horse drift up to 34-1, and wound up singling the horse he beat by a head. But you are right, that is a classic example of the early money pointing you in the right direction, and the stats telling you nothing. I usually pay very close attention to the breeding and trainer angles, but in most maiden races I just admit I do not have the necessary info, and try to take advantage of the people who do (by watching the board).