O.K., I have thought about the issue of odds and if they should affect our scoring system and here's where I come out:

If we are treating this contest as a test of handicapping skill where we are competing on our ability to select the horses that will run the best (which will be a reflection of both sheet reading ability and the accuracy of the product we use), then the price of the horse should play no role in the contest results. Any impact we let price have on our selections necessarily adds an incentive to change or disregard our handicapping opinion.

For example: I like the horse that's likely to be 3:5. I give him a 50% chance of winning based on the sheets. There is a horse likely to go off at over 10:1 who I give a 15% chance of winning. If we are doing a pure handicapping contest I should select the 50% horse for first because that's who the sheets tell me has the best chance of winning. If we let price play a role, then I should probably select the 15% horse because the expected return to me is higher. But then I am picking a horse for first who I don't really believe is the best horse. We do that in betting all of the time but that's a money management issue, not a handicapping issue. And when the contest is over, the excuses are going to fly -- I have mine ready.

My problem with using price in this contest is twofold: 1) We had complaints in the previous contest that not being able to know the odds or scratches ahead of time necessarily negated our bets (a scratch) or our bets would have been different if we had been able to wait until post time (the odds were not what we thought they would be). We will have the same problems in this contest if price plays a role.

2) I thought there was some desire to focus somewhat on the accuracy of the numbers and to concentrate on horse picking ability over money management. Letting the odds come into play negates our ability to accomplish those goals.

So, let's decide what we are trying to test and be clear on how the rules of the contest will affect our behavior (politicians should try that some time).

I'll throw it open for more discussion.

We still need to select the track(s) for the 13th.