Re: A Modest Proposal (907 Views)
Posted by:
Mall (IP Logged)
Date: July 05, 2002 12:14AM
Wrong. Money Management is the optimal use of betting capital over a long series of wagers, using the Kelly Criteria for example. In other words, what percentage of bankroll should be risked on particular bets.
In contrast, deciding what horse to bet on based on your judgment of its percentage chance to win in comparison to the crowd's judgment of is the essence of handicapping. Under your proposed system, & using your example, someone who selects a 3/5 shot with a 50% chance of winning is awarded 20 pts, even though the dopester in question is guilty of dreadful handicapping. Someone who has correctly determined that a 6-1 shot has a 50% chance of winning is also awarded 20 pts, despite his or her excellent handicapping. Depending on the system you use & your risk tolerance, the dopester who decided to bet the 6-1 shot might also decide to ratchet up the amt of the bet because he or she decided that it was a particularly juicy overlay. That would be a money management decision, not a handicapping one, or at least that's what I told myself when I took a stand against the even money fav in the nitecap today.
Maybe you should consider using the same system used in the qualifiers & National Championship, so at least those who enter can tell themselves the contest is a practice round. Otherwise, the only appropriate track under the rules you are proposing is Fantasyland Downs.