Preston,

Let me preface by saying that there is no "right" or "wrong" but the following opinions are based on the available TG data shown on the sheets along with the results of some statistical analysis of similar past patterns in horses.

Yankee Gentleman's pattern: He opened up in March with a "3" in his first lifetime start. That is sizzling. He has since essentially paired that up in his next two starts and one of those was a route in which he was OP (so probably really a little faster). The other was a sprint in which he was setting a scorching pace. So we know that he can get the distance and can handle a hotter pace than he is likely to see today and still run his first out number of 3 (probably better with a more reasonable pace). Most stakes-quality young 3yo males can better their first lifetime start as long as they are healthy. Nothing in his line indicates physical problems. He has had more than 3 months to develop from that first out and, in fact, if you take into account the OP two races back and blistering pace in his last race, he has already shown he is capable of running faster. On Sunday, he will likely get a rail trip (let’s assume there is no dead rail), a slower pace (he is the speed of the race and at the longer distance he is unlikely to be pushed hard early given the running styles of the other entrants) and he has very likely developed enough since his first start to run a new top.

Gygistar: He ran a very fast “8” early 2 then reacted and went on the shelf for 10 months. This was probably more than just bucked shins (but I am only guessing) because a horse that fast with big-time connections is probably going to be pointed to the TC if he is healthy. He comes back at three and runs a slight new top and looked very explosive going in to his next race and, in fact, he did explode jumping more than 7 points to a negative number. Classy 3yos can sometimes survive this sort of jump (about 25-30 pct of the time) and he did, pairing that number up in another sprint. However, as was hinted at in the TG analysis, two straight negative numbers that were a big jump from a prior level for an ouchy horse will eventually take their toll even on classy 3yos. In fact, he is probably twice as likely now to react than he was after the first big effort. Add to that, the question of his ability to handle the distance given that he has yet to run this far and his sire is definitely biased toward sprinters and you have a probably about a 2/3 chance for an off race and 1/3 chance for a complete X. He is giving a little over a point in weight and probably at least a point in ground loss (maybe more) to YG and if he goes back 2 pts or more and/or YG improves 2 pts or more, then YG will beat him to the wire.

American Style: His pattern is pretty strong given but the big difference between he and YG is in the amount of development. He has already developed 11 points from his 2yo top and 6 pts in the last 3 months. Compare that you YG who has yet to make a move. American Style may be at the end of the line for now and his last may even signal that he is about to tail off. YG would seem to have a lot more potential. His 3yo debut would indicate that he has the potential to improve and maybe even be a really top stakes horse.

The computer model takes all these probabilities and simulates the race over and over again many thousands of times to develop an odds line. Given the current tops and patterns, it sees YG as the most likely winner and probably the best value in the race depending on the odds.

I hope that helps. I am sure there are a lot of other opinions on this race and that is what they all are (including mine) – just opinions. But it helps to form your opinion using research and to quantify it with the help of the computer (the TG, True-Line odds tool can help you with the latter).

Good luck playing the race.

Chris