Jerry,

I would like you to estimate numbers for horses that flip over the railing, horses that act up before the gate and exert energy prior to the race especially if they have to be run down by a lead pony (those lengths should be included in the number - can't wait to see those negative 33 and 1/5ths!), horses that bear out should get faster numbers particularly if they run sideways at some point in time and if a horse breaks down during the race but still makes it across the finish line you should estimate what number it would have run if it had remained healthy during the race. It would also be helpful if you could determine if a trainer and/or jockey was really sincere in wanting the horse to run its best number - if not you should make the number faster to reflect the horse's true potential.

The day Thorograph adjusts numbers to reflect the op is the day I stop being a customer. There is no real way to adjust the number due to several reasons. If a front running horse is left in the gate the jockey may not choose to push the horse or the horse may not run well when in the unusual position of being behind the whole field. Perhaps the jockey feels he must rush the horse up to the lead and the horse tires from the extra effort. Maybe the horse is a come from behind horse and actually prefers to lag the field and runs well despite the off poorly (Ferdinand winning the Derby would be a good example). Maybe the horse is going op due to being green or being injured and will continue to go op in the future. I believe the current system of op-, op, op+, op++, etc. combined with the real number run is the appropriate way to deal with op races.

By the way, I continue to cash more tickets as I learn how to best utilize the trainer stats and TG breeding stats.