Michael,

If the "0" is really ugly then an 0-1 or 0-2 or 0-3 (any subsequent effort) may very well point to an "X" next out. Of course, it all depends on many other factors but it is usually a good pattern to bet against since often such horses are low-priced favorites.

Often (and I am not sure why) such horses then come back to throw in another good effort but it is usually the last one for a while (it is not a good pattern long term).

A great example was in the ROTW this week. In Dig For It's 6yo year he ran a very ugly top in May then showed the 0-2-X followed by another good race equal to his top, and then it took almost a year to get back to it again.

Another good example in the same race was Macaneo. He showed an 0-3 heading into the Gold Cup and then X'd.

In the same race Dollar Bill showed an 0-1 heading into the Gold Cup and probably X'd but his top could have been considered healthy and I did not really consider it the same when I looked at the race although Dollar Bill looked weak to me for some other reasons.

I hope that helps. I don't think there is anything magical about the "2" part but I could be wrong.

The important thing is was the top "ugly" or "healthy" or something in between and was the next race also an effort (I would say anything within 3 pts of the top that is also a secondary top). That is a weak next-race betting pattern (and a weak longer-term pattern) but could present a betting opportunity immediately following the X.

Hope that helps.

I would be interested in hearing some other opinions on this one.

Chris