Philip,

The take on Thu/Fri is much lower than the week-end and the fact that the others are running may mean that people are holding on to their bets on them until then. I still say EOD drifts to 20/1. I remember Ibn al Haitham well - I backed him in Dubai at 25/1 after Crisford said he was working well, and he ran a blinder. But realistically he's still a maiden and his proximity (plus the US form of both Godolphin horses) places some doubts which have got to enter people's heads on derby day - though your 10f and G2 comment will be flying around too. Given your derby quality comments, might be worth a saver on some unexposed horses that may do a charismatic (azillion at 60/1 ?).



P.S. hope you enjoyed dubai world cup day (I remember your comments). I took 4/1 on a horse that had already proven himself in dubai, at the non-standard straight sprint, off lasix and under evening lights. hindsight is usually great, but for once I had foresight...




Philip Mandl wrote:
>
> Well the current odds for Essence of Dubai in Pool 3 is 15-1
> and since he's not running the odds may stay around that
> area. To me he's an underlay in pool 3 and I'll likely
> pass. I also believe he will be overbet come derby day. He'll
> be the only horse to have run and won a Group 2 going 1 1/4
> miles against a big field that in my opinion had some
> talented horses running. From here on out I believe as a
> rule Godolphin horses will get overbet especially after how
> well they performed in last years Breeders Cup. P.S. Do not
> discount Ibn Al Haitham. There's your Godolphin overlay for
> the Derby.
> As for Johannesburg, I can't believe he's 9-2 right now in
> Pool 3. A big underlay. The Gladness Stakes in my opinion
> should not be considered an easy race for him to win. He'll
> be giving 7LBS to older horses and if he runs well look out.
> He just may do the impossible come Derby day on Class alone.
> With this years group it's possible. I don't believe Aidan
> O'Brien will send a short horse over here.