Lets wait for the figures. If you read the DRF today concerning Mott on Wood day, it was obvious he was on the rag that day.
My point is that there was no speed bias that day and the fact that the top three ran head to head from the top of the stretch to the finish and Saarland couldn't get them, well then, in theory Saarland has no excuse, and should be viewed as a "no shot" in the Derby. But, let's wait for the fgures.

BTW, with all these negative factors (breeding or too slow) surrounding so many "contenders" this year, it might be worth it to try this approach:

Throw breeding out the window. Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Monarchos were not supposed to win based on their breeding. Horses today are bred for speed, not stamina. Thunder Gulch was by a sprinter/miler. Real Quiet didn't even qualify on dosage and got beat by 3 different horses in New Mexico. Monarchos was by Marias Mon, a sprinter/miler with physical problems. Charismatic - come on.

So, with Came Home and Harlans Holiday probably already peaked out and Saarland a non-contender based on the Wood, that leaves one other horse if you follow the dual qualifier system, which, mathamatically over the years is a sound approach to picking the winner. (HH not a dual qualifier, but will be favored).

That leaves us with Johannesburg.
2 yo "jinx", breeding, got beat by filly getting wieght- no shot, right?
Think again. He has room to improve and was way better than these at Belmont. The 2 yo jinx has to be broken some time, and if we toss the "Hennesey" angle and realize that Johan still is a dual qualifier, well he looks as good as any.If he developed physically, he could be the one, and maybe at a price. MO