Re: Handicapping first time starters (1656 Views)
Posted by:
nyc1347 (IP Logged)
Date: August 26, 2010 11:30AM
I would use these things:
1. workout time comparison from the most distant compared to the most recent working up to a race.
2. gate works are very important.. see who the fastest is and who the slowest is.
3. im not a pedigree/sire person when an individual horse has established its own pattern or numbers but i go to it as a puzzle piece for first time out horses.. when something sticks out SO much with some kind of verification AND im getting great ML odds i will play it.. such as Ronin Dax yesterday.
u can redboard that race if u want.. this is what i saw..
Tapits horses overall have been pretty fast and that 10 TGI overall number (within a fairly decent sample size) compared to the others stuck out like a sore thumb. The overall includes all the categories but with that sticking out by multiple points and with the horse showing improvement with every workout 2nd out within each distace of 4 to 6 furlongs it provided me with a sort of verification that he was ready to run in that race compared to the field. check out the works.. http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=08004716 ..he was also 8/1 ML and completely over looked as the trainer was 0 for 8 or something first time turfers (which the public sees in the DRF). i put the trust in what the horse showed me NOT the trainer stats.
4. Look to the board to see if what u personally like is being wagered and if there is any money put on a horse that doesnt seem right. Not that this effects a horses performance but if you see a 12 to 1 shot at a saratoga type track a 2 to 1 on the board and you dont like the horse on paper i would stay away. Those works can be tricky especially when horses are shipping in from training tracks.. other states.. or even across country at times running dirt, poly or turf first time out.
5. Id stay away from maiden claimers if possible unless they have run already a couple times or something really sticks out. the MSW horses run more consistent imo based on what you see on paper... just as allowance and stakes horses run more consistent overall when compared to the cheaper claimers.
6. watch for trainers who run their horses on dirt for the first time then go straight to turf. you will see at times horses suck on dirt and then run big on grass 2nd time out(but 1st time turf). that angle just adds more of a dimension of something i personally dont want to be part of unless its forced on me like a pick 4 leg, etc.
7. look out for horses who have run once or twice and get lasix first time.
those are a few pointers and i guess il add more if i think of anything else.. im just going off the top of my head.
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