My guess is you don't use our product, probably because you don't bet enough. The key questions about first time starters-- intent and precocity-- are best answered by the trainer profiles and pedigree data on our sheets. Look in the Red Board Room for the data for any maiden race.

Some trainers get them ready first time out, some don't. Some do when they run in maiden claimers, not special weights, and vica versa. Some run better when they get bet, some don't. Some improve dramatically second out, and with those, the first out figure often should be ignored.

With pedigree data, while sire info is useful, the really useful info is found on the dam side. Finding a mare that has thrown foals who run big figures early is very valuable, especially if they are not well known (stake) horses.

Pay attention to sales prices, especially 2yo sales prices. Yearling prices are based on pedigree and conformation, 2yo prices are based on whether the horse worked fast. The classic situation is a horse who sold for 25k as a yearling but 400k as a 2yo-- his pedigree is worth 25k, so he has shown a lot of ability.

Finally, with big name trainers (like Pletcher), downgrade his first time starters if they are homebreds. Usually those guys get to pick their runners at sales, but for long time (or big) clients they will take on horses they ordinarily would not.

That post is worth a lot of money.