Good stuff!
Nothing better than an actual handicapping discussion on a talent laden forum. Would add a few things.
Without specific regard to pedigree, a science few understand, it is difficult to make a point unless generalizations are used. With that written:
The age of the first timer is very important at least in terms of precocity. If a juvenile, fine, if a sophomore or older, precocity loses most of its luster.
As a general rule, the younger the horse the more influence from the sire.
Horses that are not fit, seldom win and fillies are much easier to get fit than colts and geldings.
The best starting point for cappin a firster is to ask "Why was this mare bred to this stallion?
Trainer intent is of course important in any race, but horses win races not trainers.
Big stables, generally have "big" owners and many of these have farms or training centers to leg up their charges.
Works are obviously of major importance and can be interpreted differently. Two time tested tenets one positve and one negative are; 1) gaps in works are never good and 2) a firster that progresses quickly in the distance of their works is coming to hand. Most trainers will work three eights a trio of times before progressing, but a horse that goes three poles, then a week later a half then another week later five eights is almost always live.
Which sale?? Is of added significance. The best yearling sale right now is FasigTipton. The last sale, in July, four thousand yearlings applied...four hundred accepted.
Lastly over the last decade or so, owners have wanted a quicker return on their investments and the two year old in training sales have offered to feed that need. Most of these sales offer video of the 2yo's work, on line.
A good case in point occured Sunday at Delmar when Da Bomber made his debut. This Cal bred, altered son of the precocious Distorted Humor son Da Stoops ($3500 stud fee) was shipped to cross country to Timonium for the sale and worked a hole in the wind, with an exceptional gallop out and was RNA'd for some eighty grand, from memory. The work is online at fasigtipton.com and is as good as a juvy can work. Shipped cross coast, again, he was RNA'd again for big money, was sold privately, and was 8-1 on the morning line in a weak field, but had worked very well for his debut, got a tough trip and still got up at some $28.
Sorry for the ramble but this is a topic I relish. bbb