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Beyond the Figures (1339 Views)
Posted by: derby1592 (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2002 04:29PM

Below is a list of the most recent 20 Derby winners. With only a few exceptions, these horses, not surprisingly, all put in strong stretch runs in their final Derby preps. Only a couple of them were passed by another horse in the stretch and in those cases, unusual pace scenarios or track conditions were an important factor. For example, Silver Charm was nosed out in a thrilling stretch run but only after he uncharacteristically got caught up in a speed duel (he typically stalked the early pace) but, despite going 45 flat and 1:09 flat early, he tenaciously dug in during the final 16th after being headed in mid stretch and still won over many new backers even in defeat. In many cases, the eventual Derby winner did not win its final Derby prep but instead chased home one or more front runners through the stretch but then managed to turn the tables on those same horses given the added distance and pace pressure in the Derby. A look at the second place finishers in the Derby reveals a very similar pattern.

I would think twice before betting on a horse that did not put in a strong stretch run in its final Derby prep, particularly, if it was passed by other horses in the stretch. This is one reason I would be reluctant to play RFP or Blue Burner even at long odds. Once again, this is just one of many factors I consider when handicapping the Derby.

One final note: notice that all of these horses (except for Spend A Buck), also not surprisingly, ran their final Derby preps in either the Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass, Aks Derby, or Lexington. Of course, training methods, the spacing of traditional Derby preps / the addition of several new preps, and shipping options have changed a lot in recent years but this last factor is also probably still worth taking into consideration.

Chris


*****
Most Recent 20 Derby Winners:

Monarchos (chased Congaree in Wood)
Fusaichi Pegasus (drew off in Wood)
Charismatic (drew off in Lex)
Real Quiet (chased Indian Charlie in SA Derby)
Silver Charm (sizzled early, dug-in late, nosed out in SA Derby)
Grindstone (closed furiously but fell a nose short in Aks Derby)
Thunder Gulch (pressed dawdling pace in BG and failed to cut into lead)
Go for Gin (chased Irgun in Wood)
Sea Hero (pressed dawdling pace in BG and failed to cut into lead)
Lil E. Tee (chased Pine Bluff in the Aks Dby)
Strike The Gold (drew off in BG)
Unbridled (chased Summer Squall in BG)
Sunday Silence (drew off in SA Derby)
Winning Colors (drew off in SA Derby)
Alysheba (closed to win but was DQ’d in BG)
Ferdinand (chased in SA Derby )
Spend A Buck (ran away and hid in Garden State Derby)
Swale (Chased He Is A Great Deal in the slop in Lex)
Sunny's Halo (ran away and hid in Aks Derby)
Gato Del Sol (chased Linkage in BG)



Subject Written By Posted
The Kaintuckee Derby (2283 Views) Jim 04/21/2002 12:04AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1343 Views) derby1592 04/21/2002 02:29AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1363 Views) Treadhead 04/21/2002 09:06AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1387 Views) kevin s 04/21/2002 10:22AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1247 Views) Jim 04/21/2002 11:04AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1367 Views) Treadhead 04/21/2002 11:31AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1328 Views) Jim 04/21/2002 10:52AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1387 Views) TGJB 04/21/2002 02:47PM
Beyond the Figures (1339 Views) derby1592 04/21/2002 04:29PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1421 Views) TGJB 04/21/2002 02:54PM
Its tough to compare... (1293 Views) derby1592 04/21/2002 03:07PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1291 Views) kevin s 04/21/2002 03:08PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1365 Views) TGJB 04/21/2002 05:06PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1338 Views) Tim B. 04/21/2002 05:31PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1352 Views) kevin s 04/21/2002 06:11PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1335 Views) Tim B. 04/21/2002 07:30PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1371 Views) fastspeed 04/22/2002 10:13AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1327 Views) Treadhead 04/22/2002 11:04AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1412 Views) fastspeed 04/22/2002 11:39AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1308 Views) Jim 04/22/2002 06:39PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1333 Views) kevin s 04/22/2002 08:44PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1285 Views) Jim 04/22/2002 11:24PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1281 Views) Jim 04/22/2002 06:32PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1344 Views) TGJB 04/23/2002 12:35PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1448 Views) Jim 04/23/2002 02:51PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1354 Views) TGJB 04/23/2002 04:19PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1393 Views) Jim 04/23/2002 04:45PM
I give up. I cannot solve the Wood figures brain teaser... (1370 Views) derby1592 04/21/2002 06:55PM
Re: I give up. I cannot solve the Wood figures brain teaser... (1358 Views) bdhsheets 04/22/2002 03:48AM
Re: I give up. I cannot solve the Wood figures brain teaser... (1333 Views) TGJB 04/22/2002 01:20PM
Re: I give up. I cannot solve the Wood figures brain teaser... (1275 Views) Michael Downey 04/22/2002 02:19PM
Re: I give up. I cannot solve the Wood figures brain teaser... (1432 Views) TGJB 04/22/2002 01:10PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1281 Views) kevin s 04/21/2002 09:16PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1328 Views) Bret Hibert 04/21/2002 10:21PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1323 Views) kevin s 04/21/2002 11:21PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1325 Views) TGJB 04/22/2002 01:22PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1435 Views) TGJB 04/22/2002 01:18PM
Interesting thought about Figure methodology (1353 Views) Goofything 04/22/2002 06:34PM
Re: Interesting thought about Figure methodology (1443 Views) TGJB 04/23/2002 12:38PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1354 Views) Jim 04/22/2002 06:21PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1397 Views) Excitable Boy 04/22/2002 06:26PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1412 Views) Jim 04/22/2002 06:45PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1404 Views) Excitable Boy 04/23/2002 02:57AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1350 Views) Jim 04/23/2002 04:58PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1340 Views) Excitable Boy 04/23/2002 05:10PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1218 Views) kevin s 04/23/2002 05:47PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1320 Views) TGJB 04/24/2002 04:37PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1322 Views) Jim 04/24/2002 06:21PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1335 Views) fastspeed 04/23/2002 06:36PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1366 Views) kevin s 04/23/2002 06:40PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1315 Views) Jim 04/23/2002 08:06PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1358 Views) Excitable Boy 04/23/2002 08:13PM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1327 Views) HP 04/22/2002 09:16AM
Re: The Kaintuckee Derby (1367 Views) Jim 04/23/2002 09:13PM


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