I like turf races. I like long races. Therefore it should come as no surprise that the San Juan Capistrano Handicap is one of my favorite races of the year. My thoughts in post position order...

1. Kerrygold - 2 races in 15 days coming off of paired tops separated by only 21 days. I take the view that this one will regress a couple of points.

2. Continental Red - Nice horse who in the summer of 2001 figured out how the game was played. Topped in first start at DMR but never got back to those figures until this year. At a short price and the highweight, this is a horse I'll try to beat as it's only now that he's been able to repeat those tops efforts.

3. Dispersed Reward - After being taken under by Vladimir Cerin, this young filly is a slowly improving sort. Equaled 3yo top first out as a 4yo, ran a new top as expected, bounced to just underneath previous top and ran back to pair her top last out. Short rest worried me, but this one could have a small forward move in her. At the weight (if Sorenson can make it) and at the price, she could make the exotics interesting even if she doesn't win the race. Normally I don't look at jockeys too much when handicapping a race, but the prospect of Danny Sorenson winning a Grade I race is scary to me. Must be because he can make weight.

4. Cagney - Looks the part of a favorite. Nice spacing for this one. In terms of figures he looks as though the disasterous Tokyo trip is behind him and is fully recovered. Will be right in the thick of things. Can't see him running off the board.

5. Keemoon - Seems to be the "wise-guys" horse. I do not like her myself. Tailed off last year after running a new top at KEE. Equaled that top first out this year. I think she will regress slightly. At the price which figures to be a bit low given her run last out and the additional distance, I'll look elsewhere for the win money.

6. Ringaskiddy - Looks as though this horse is circling out of a positive cycle and will most likely not be a factor in today's race.

7. Speedy Pick - This horse has gone from breaking his maiden last June to running in a Grade I event in April. Turf seems to be this ones game, as evident in his San Luis Rey run. His full brother Hugh Hefner also seems to like it as well. After pairing new tops on his first two turf efforts, he moved forward again in the SLR. I think with the spacing and the fact that he is a lightly raced sort that he stands a good chance to move forward yet again. Looks to be the lone speed and should get the best trip possible. Obvious question is can he get the distance. At the price, the trip, and the pattern I guess I'll be willing to pay to find out.

8. Soul Warrior - Barry Abrams musn't like this horse very much. 4th race in just over a month, this time going 1 3/4 miles. He could mix things up in the triples if he can manage to keep cranking out the numbers he's run in the past. But given the campaign so far and the grueling nature of this race, I'll say he folds when the real running starts.

9. Staging Post - Don't know what to make of this one. If he runs to his seasonal debut, he's right there. I think that he will run somewhere in between the two efforts. Likely to be overbet with Frankel/Desormeaux, I'll take a stand against.

10. Chelsea Barracks - Horse ran a new top last out after two races removed from a 1 1/2 year vacation. That being said, I'll pen him as bouncing off that effort, even with the spacing entering the race and the weights. Could still make the triples interesting.

Certainly looks like a wide open affair to me. I'm leaning towards Speedy Pick as my key horse in this race over Dispersed Reward, Cagney, and Chelsea Barracks. However, expect that ALL button to be used as well.

Sorry for the length of this post, but like I said at the top, this is one of my favorite races of the year.

Good luck.