Re: Lucky Pulpit vs. Tapit (504 Views)
Posted by:
TreadHead (IP Logged)
Date: April 07, 2014 04:36PM
Not sure how this contradicts anything. Was -2 his best figure? He did his best work at SA, and yes there were a couple times he didn't run his best at SA. Perhaps if CC ran 10+ races at SA he might not win every one of them either. Yes, he ran "well" and won a couple races away from SA, but never better than he did at SA with the multiple -3s.
Unless CC is going to run his best race at CD, and assuming your figures are correct about the other horses, something a cut below CCs best, even if just a cut below, wont get the job done in the Derby. And for all the reasons I've already mentioned, my money is going to be on him not being at quite his best. Not saying he's going to come in last place or even the bottom half of the field, but I don't see him winning. I get that it's an unpopular opinion.
If we were talking about a horse like Big Brown that already has a several point advantage over the field, then an entirely different discussion. The splitting hairs over reasons he might back up 1 or 2 points are of little use. But given the cluster of figures of other contenders and where CC stacks up, it's time to start splitting hairs IMO, and I see several on CC I don't like compared to the others if we are talking about at 10F race at CD in a 20 horse field.