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Re: Figure Differences (614 Views)
Posted by: ajkreider (IP Logged)
Date: April 08, 2014 03:56PM

I'm doing a real poor job of articulating myself, so I'll let it go after this.

I get that Borel won with rail trips. But he didn't need the rail trips to win, as his horse put up the best number anyway. What I find at least a very weird coincidence is the dearth of rail trips that win, despite another horse running faster (and thus getting a better number).

Where are the winning 1w/1w trips getting a 0, while the second placed horse gets a negative 1 (due to a wide trip)? Shouldn't we be able to point at a slew of horses and say, "They won because they saved ground in the Derby". Since they carry the same weight, it will show up in the loser getting the better number.

But it never happens. By the archives, only Funny Cide and Real Quiet since 1997 (both a point worse than the runner up). And this means none from 2003, which is about when the 20 horse field became the norm - and just the opposite of what I'd expect.

It says to me to bet the fastest horse to win, regardless of expected ground loss (in the Derby).



Subject Written By Posted
Figure Differences (1106 Views) TGJB 04/07/2014 01:59PM
Re: Figure Differences (762 Views) miff 04/07/2014 02:11PM
Re: Figure Differences (796 Views) TGJB 04/07/2014 02:23PM
Re: Figure Differences (758 Views) covelj70 04/07/2014 02:15PM
Re: Figure Differences (667 Views) jimbo66 04/07/2014 02:23PM
Re: Figure Differences (787 Views) TGJB 04/07/2014 02:29PM
Re: Figure Differences (670 Views) covelj70 04/07/2014 02:31PM
Re: Figure Differences (711 Views) jimbo66 04/07/2014 02:50PM
Re: Figure Differences (710 Views) covelj70 04/07/2014 03:16PM
Re: Figure Differences (661 Views) Polamalu43 04/07/2014 03:24PM
Re: Figure Differences (776 Views) covelj70 04/07/2014 03:29PM
Re: Figure Differences (727 Views) TGJB 04/07/2014 03:43PM
Re: Figure Differences (686 Views) ajkreider 04/07/2014 09:19PM
Re: Figure Differences (659 Views) Tavasco 04/07/2014 09:49PM
Re: Figure Differences (634 Views) TGJB 04/08/2014 01:19PM
Re: Figure Differences (578 Views) big18741 04/08/2014 01:26PM
Re: Figure Differences (650 Views) covelj70 04/08/2014 01:43PM
Noonan speaks! (660 Views) miff 04/08/2014 02:06PM
Re: Figure Differences (592 Views) ajkreider 04/08/2014 02:37PM
Re: Figure Differences (694 Views) TGJB 04/08/2014 02:43PM
Re: Figure Differences (603 Views) big18741 04/08/2014 02:45PM
Re: Figure Differences (614 Views) ajkreider 04/08/2014 03:56PM
Re: Figure Differences (652 Views) miff 04/08/2014 04:08PM
Re: Figure Differences (647 Views) Tavasco 04/08/2014 03:46PM
Re: Figure Differences (666 Views) FrankD. 04/08/2014 09:31PM


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