Re: Figure Differences (614 Views)
Posted by:
ajkreider (IP Logged)
Date: April 08, 2014 03:56PM
I'm doing a real poor job of articulating myself, so I'll let it go after this.
I get that Borel won with rail trips. But he didn't need the rail trips to win, as his horse put up the best number anyway. What I find at least a very weird coincidence is the dearth of rail trips that win, despite another horse running faster (and thus getting a better number).
Where are the winning 1w/1w trips getting a 0, while the second placed horse gets a negative 1 (due to a wide trip)? Shouldn't we be able to point at a slew of horses and say, "They won because they saved ground in the Derby". Since they carry the same weight, it will show up in the loser getting the better number.
But it never happens. By the archives, only Funny Cide and Real Quiet since 1997 (both a point worse than the runner up). And this means none from 2003, which is about when the 20 horse field became the norm - and just the opposite of what I'd expect.
It says to me to bet the fastest horse to win, regardless of expected ground loss (in the Derby).