And The Overlay(s) is/are:

1) #4 [b]Ride On Curlin[/b] @ 12/1 probable good trip. If the additional distance helps (most will read PP's as it won't) price could be about the m/l. While Desormeaux sent him in the Rebel, John Court likely to press along side Tapiture following #2 Knock Em Flat a likely pace factor. He was a TG analysis use in the Rebel and the situation seems similar here.

2) #6 [b]Commissioner[/b] @ 8/1, since Covello touted him 2nd - Jim's thousands of followers will probably beat this one's price down to 5/1 by post time. 8/1 doesn't seem an overlay to me. Commissioner=Revolutionary if the latter gets a piece of the preceding race then I'll consider him for 3rd. Mike Smith up is always a concern. The simple read is that the additional distance will help his late running style or [u]NOT[/u]. On Friday most of the winners were with the pace. Only a couple of deep closers had any success and one was a favorite.

3) #7 [b]Conquest Titan[/b] @ 10/1, this ones claim to fame seems to be his 2nd place finish to Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull. His late running style is no help. Since Borel will need his patented rail ride to contend along with Knock Em Flat dropping anchor on the second turn and possibly Ride On Curlin mid stretch looks like too much traffic. Does not look a bargain to me.

4) #5 [b]Knock Em Flat[/b] @ 20/1, well this one is lightly raced and a jump up is possible. The maiden in last weeks SA Derby just about created a big score. My problem is I believe the argument that stamina comes from the bottom of the pedigree. This one's dam one and only good race came winning a maiden claimer @ 1+1/16. However it could be the filly went wrong after that. Trainer change says SoCal competition too tough for #5. Wish & a prayer. Hey he could drift up to 30/1 if another/Commissioner takes money.

5) #5 [b]Thundergram[/b] @ 30/1, Has beaten a lot of horses already in 2014. I think his January win was aided by a bad weather late speed bias. But his recent 2nd place was credible, albeit slow in terms of final time. Getting into the race early was probably a function of a pedestrian pace rather than improving form. So what is this horse doing in this race? Oh! Mr. Oxley! I wish I had a read on this ones stamina. But seems only interesting to superperfecta players,

The obvious ones are Tapiture (a proven racehorse) and Bayern (a proven trainer) this looks to be the cheapest exact payoff. So one needs to beat one of these or get a bomber in 3rd or a bookend race. Hm!

Including Strong Mandate seems more subjective than objective. Yet, D. Wayne has lots of fans and accomplishments. No money to be made betting with the crowd.

6) P.S., #1 [b]Danza[/b] @ 15/1, I can't be positive on this one with Bravo up. This board would be throwing shoes at me. A virtual cinch to get stopped inside by traffic as is his m.o. Another whose price could vary trainer gets the money! Overlooked can sometimes be a good thing.

This is an opportunity to score because the consensus is this race is chalky. Of course those are folks who think they know what they are talking about and are likely sober too. And the pattern read is...

Will somebody estimate the Bayern/Commissioner exacta? But, what if Commissioner actually wins? or a Bayern flops? A ?? contest race so late in the event? I am out of steam - Good Luck all.