I'm not sure what to make of that, because it could be interpreted a number of ways depending on whether one is in favor or against Cairo. I'll take the positive side here.

If you look at I'll Have Another's sheet, O'Neill did something very similar with him in 2012. He ran a huge jump up figure in early February, then didn't run again until early April. Now obviously the main difference is he won the SA Derby, but it was a regression by 1.75 points. He then paired his February # winning the Derby. I don't know what Cairo's regression was yet, but if he ran around a 3 it will mirror IHA's winning Derby pattern as a 3yo.

One thing I do know-Cairo's odds should be better than his chances of winning the race. He's going to be overlooked for a few reasons: 1) His Beyers are all under 100 as are his BRIS #s 2)He has a doseage index of 7.00 3)His last race was bad and 3 other Derby horses beat him.

Since he isn't much of a physical specimen, I think the reports out of Churchill from Welsch & other clockers on his physical appearance will be very important. The good news is, unlike Chrome, he'll ship in early enough to Louisville to get a workout in over the track & I assume will have daily gallops all Derby week which will be observed and reported to us on the internet. Plus if we're lucky, we might just get some observations from our man Covello like he has done before.