covelj70 Wrote:
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> good that he's sound to be able to breeze like
> that
>
> not sure I would be lookin for that fast of a
> breeze though. (look how much faster than other
> few who breezed)
>
> I know fast horses breeze fast but I think this
> horse would be better if he laid off the pace a
> bit and I don't think fast breezes help the cause
> there

Jim its getting close and we need SCIENCE. I do not think that workouts are
worthy of analysis because there are so many variables. If a horse who has
been working either fast or slow, and then there is some reversal, then you
have my attention.

> I'm not a trainer but he's clearly not as good
> right on the pace as he is back a little further
> with the ability to then close. This reminds me a
> bit of the Super Saver situation where he was no
> good in the Arkansas Derby close to the pace and
> he had no kick left but Calvin got him to relax in
> the Derby and he had some close. I know weak
> field and sloppy track etc but he clearly had more
> in the tank in the Derby after holding back off
> the pace.

Jim, Supe takes too much grief in the TG world. Jimbo says that Supe and MTB
are the two worst Derby winners [i]ever[/i]. I do not see how Supe was "bad'
in the Ark Derby, second beaten a neck, I think pairing before coming back to
prevail in Louisville.

A fun derby that year. I liked Lookin at Lucky quite a bit -- the versatility
and productivity of his sire is somehow underrated -- but figured he would be
3/1 and talked myself off of him. Then after he drew post one I told myself
that he would (Denman voice) have to sprout wings to win from what to me is
that deepest abyss, post one in a 20 runner Derby. Of course he ended up
going off at odds of over 6/1 and I couldn't stay away. And of course he
endured 10 furlongs of torture, and I with him

Jim, you know who reminds me of LAL this year? CC. Besides the fact that CC,
like LAL, will be favored if he stands in the gate, CC had an EXTENSIVE 2YO
foundation, winning a baby race in the Spring, a stakes winner by Summer.

The factoid people like to throw out is that no runner unraced at two has won
the Derby since 1882, but look at Big Brown. How much bottom could he have
gotten in that one race as a 2YO? I still prefer Derby runners with
foundation and seasoning, perhaps (to me) what makes CC logical.

> Arod's best chance in two weeks is to be further back and
> I would therefore like to see a slower breeze next
> weekend before the race.

Ok Jimmy but if its too slow you won't be happy either!

Jimmy this future wager is eating you up! Just get him to the race, man.

> If anyone finds any video of the breeze, would
> love to see that if they could post a link

Still not tossed and looking good:

1) CC.
2) Saaaamraaaat. Wicked was pulling away in the Wood, but which of the two is
more likely to give another solid effort? Sam will be slower than the main
contenders but his consistency is impressive. Question to me is whether he
will be able to quicken and advance late because now he kind of seems like a
grinder. Has what we used to call "iron' form, albeit running at Aquedump.
3) Chitu. Not quite as an extensive 2YO foundation as CC, but (to me) this one
has looked like he was going strong at the end of his races. Baffert.
4) Danza. Who knows? Getting good at the right time? Definitely helped by
milk carton worthy efforts by Tapiture and Strong Mandate at Hot Springs.
Four good races lifetime, not much mileage on the odometer, definitely a wild
card.