Re: California Chrome now 1 to 3.5 to not win Derby (538 Views)
Posted by:
moosepalm (IP Logged)
Date: April 23, 2014 09:21AM
From 1975 to 2012, the 1 post was 1 for 37 on top, and hit the super 22% of the time, which ranked it 10th (might be lower, but I ran out of fingers). The 9, 12 and 14 posts came up with a donut for 37, the 17 is 0 for 35, and the 19 is 0 for 16. All of those posts, plus the 6, 11 and 15 have the lowest hit rates for the super. So, the 9 and 11 aren't particularly good, but the 10 has won 6 out of 37, and has a chart topping 41% hit rate in the super. The 20 post ranks second in the super at 38%, but that was with a limited 8 horse sampling. As is the case with so much of Derby data, evidence is all over the map. Bottom line is that you can get in trouble from any post, though some find the configuration of gate to the first turn to be detrimental for the rail horse, and others don't want to deal with possible ground loss from the far outside.