Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (861 Views)
Posted by:
ajkreider (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2014 01:45PM
This isn't a pedigree issue, and I'm not sure if it is worth noting. But it appears you shouldn't play a horse for a big jump up relative to his peers. By the data, it looks like a horse that had a last out route figure that ranked outside the top ten was unlikely make it into the Derby super.
19/64 did it, which actually seems okay. But 9 of those 19 were on wet tracks. Two others were jump ups from poly races. Since 1998, when the Derby was run on a fast track, at least three of the four superfecta horses had a last out top ten route fig - with the exception of Barbaro's year, when it was 2/4 (including Barbaro).
Edit: it was 2/4 in Giacomo's year.