Stuck in the middle with you... (1282 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 22, 2014 01:49PM
So on one side we have Friedman once posting that Ragozin (Jake? Sherman?) figures are an "objective measure of the resiliencey (sic) of the track", on the other we have Miff saying "zero science" is involved.
Below find the SA Derby as I did it. Put aside for a moment that (as I said at the time) we got the race about 3/5 slow, timed a couple of times by a couple different guys. Just look at the horses.
We don't just make figures off the winners. If you make the race faster you are giving out a new top to the winner (who was clearly eased up, by the way), as well as a bunch of others behind him who this way get figures tight to their histories. In other words, to make it faster you would have to believe they all picked the same day to jump forward.
Everything we do here is probability, and nothing is 100%. But this one is at least 85%.
Attachments:
sa0508rev.PDF (100.1KB)