TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So on one side we have Friedman once posting that
> Ragozin (Jake? Sherman?) figures are an "objective
> measure of the resiliencey (sic) of the track", on
> the other we have Miff saying "zero science" is
> involved.
>
> Below find the SA Derby as I did it. Put aside for
> a moment that (as I said at the time) we got the
> race about 3/5 slow, timed a couple of times by a
> couple different guys. Just look at the horses.
>
> We don't just make figures off the winners. If you
> make the race faster you are giving out a new top
> to the winner (who was clearly eased up, by the
> way), as well as a bunch of others behind him who
> this way get figures tight to their histories. In
> other words, to make it faster you would have to
> believe they all picked the same day to jump
> forward.
>
> Everything we do here is probability, and nothing
> is 100%. But this one is at least 85%.


I'm not for one second questioning your figure for CC. I agree with you and respect your work greatly. I've learned a lot reading this board over the years.

That said, there is no evidence the time of the SA Derby is off at all. Using video editing software, it can be proven the race is timed exactly like every other 9f race at Santa Anita. I use it to time from the gate. The method is accurate to within a few hundredths.

I timed the last five Santa Anita Derbys. The run up isn't very long at that distance, 63 feet. The time of the run up (gate time minus official time) falls right where it always does for the race, between 3.15 and 3.35 seconds. If this race is off, every race at that distance at Santa Anita is off. This year's race was on the fast side before hitting the beam, 3.18, compared to 3.32 last year. So, gate timing actually makes this race better than appears, not slower. There is no evidence the race is mistimed, certainly not to to the tune of .60. Frame by frame video doesn't lie, and as I said is precise to within a few hundredths.

2013 Gate Time: 1:52.08
2013 Official Time: 1:48.76
2013 Difference: 3.32

2014 Gate Time: 1:50.70
2014 Official Time: 1:47.52
2014 Difference: 3.18

I'll be happy to email you the other years if you are interested, but they all look the same.


On a separate note, what did you think of the timing of Gulfstream mile dirt races this year? I personally think they were, and continue to be, wildly inaccurate.