I wouldn't use this for making selections myself so I certainly don't take any offense. The use of the odds was intended more to make sure I'm comparing horses with similar chances of winning. Like you I view odds of 15-1+ as a positive because we all want value.

Here are a two things that I think might be interesting to take from this.

1) The faster the horse the more important the pedigree for the distance. The horses that have outrun their pedigrees on Derby Day were on the slow side coming into the Derby and the fast horses that flopped had weak distance pedigrees.

2) The public overbets slow horses with strong pedigrees in the hope that the additional distance will be just the medecine.

3) The public overbets fast horses with poor distance pedigrees.

Why I think it may be important in this years derby is because California Chrome is a fast horse with a questionable pedigree. At 3.4 his dosage index slips just under the 3.5 from the study, but after factoring in the fact that he's a Cal Bred and the huge surface switch from SA to CD. I think he's an awesome bet against.