Re: Wicked Strong (1007 Views)
Posted by:
pizzalove (IP Logged)
Date: April 26, 2014 01:43PM
I dont know what is so made up about bounce theories. I will admit it is an inexact science. But so is horse racing. I will tell you that being a former race horse owner myself I put alot less stock in appearance. I dont doubt for a minute that WS looked great when you saw him and worked wonderfully. I will also tell you that in the KD 80 to 90 of the horses will work great and with a high energy level. That is why out of tens of thousands of three year old thoroughbreds only 20 run in the Derby. Derby horses tend to look great.
I can tell you plenty of Derby mistakes I have made based on a horses appearance or how they work prior to the derby. I thought storm treasure may have been the best horse I have ever seen. Just perfect looks and size. Laid an egg on the first may saturday.
I was four feet from M. Matz who was sitting on a horse with leather chaps when a horse was working toward the finish line. Effortless smooth brilliant looking runner. I asked "who the hell was that?". Matz told me it was "union rags". I did not recognize him because i cant even begin to tell you the unbelieveable difference between seeing a horse on Tv and seeing it live. I bet with both hands. Rags lost in the Derby easily.
even Earlier on some of my larger exactas I took out Invisible ink and replaced him with the gourgeous Congaree. Mistake. Wife didnt talk to me for awhile after that one.
Is Wicked Strong a nice looking colt? Certainly. But if you knew nothing of the race records and Candy boy, Dance with Fate, and Wicked Strong were led into a sales ring I guarantee both of those horses would bring back more than WS. And so would others.
On the bounce angle I dont know of a horse that worked harder in their race than WS. Ridden hard and fully extended and not a particulary straight stretch run. I completely acknowledge I could be wrong here but a matching top is the best you can root for here in my opinion and I dont think it is likely. If he does match he is in there but I just dont like it. Also throw in his perfect ground saving trip and u could argue a very weak wood field. (Saamraat a toss for me). I just cant see playing this obvious second choice at 5 or 6-1.
As for the breeding I was never a big fan of Hard Spun. To say this is the second best bred horse in this field is reaching. Hard Spun had a mildly successful triple crown series because he was like the lone speed each time. I thought there would be more speed in the derby but Larry was the only one smart enough to tell them to go for the lead and it appeared he would steal it until trounced by Street Sense. If only he had followed this strategy in the Belmont. It was somewhat of an off track that year as well in the Derby.
I do like the jock and trainer.