Re: Wicked Strong (942 Views)
Posted by:
covelj70 (IP Logged)
Date: April 26, 2014 04:32PM
Again, that's what makes the game great
People can have legitimate differences of opinion.
There have been enough horses that have jumped up in race before the Derby and then have run well in Derby that its obviously not something that can be approached with a "one size fits all" framework
Every horse and every situation is different
There are too many variables that can impact the analysis for anyone to apply the same framework to every horse
Just one example. Does anyone know which horses had legal vet work done before the last race which might have made them more comfortable and allowed them to run better?
I certainly don't know But maybe one of the horses that jumped up 7 points had legit vet work done to fix something that was bugging him and that's why he improved. He's less likely to react to the number.
No one knows these things about every horse and so to say any horse that jumped up a certain amount is going to react is simply pretending to know something that is unknowable. We can say "it's all about percentages" but its not because the horses that jumped up could have all jumped up for different reasons. Vet work, a track or distance that suited them better, change in running style, blinkers, no blinkers, etc
To apply the same framework to all horses that jump up when all the jump ups could be for different reasons is not a good idea.
That's why evaluating the horse in person is, in my opinion, significantly more valuable than numbers of a piece of paper
The numbers tell me which horses are fast. That is incredibly valuable and why i love the tgs. The rest is meaningless to me.