Re: DMR 7th Daily Double (513 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: July 27, 2014 12:22PM
Rick --
There is no "correct" probability line, but the win pool tends to be the most efficient, which is why the other pools are compared to it.
There can always be anomalies with any single combo, but in general the probabilities of horses in the other pools tend to reflect those in the win pool pretty closely.
If a horse is 4-1 on the board, he's likely to be around 7-2 to 9/2 in the exotics, but you're rarely going to see him something like 10-1.
Big bettors, the computer guys and the arb guys who have a good idea of what the fair odds of a horse should be will see the mispricing in the other pools and push those odds closer to fair value.
The correlation isn't perfect of course, especially when dealing with smaller pools, but anomalies of the type bb pointed out are a rarity.