The Aussie racing is over for the night. Not much discussion about the Travers Stakes, I guess because so many of the regulars are waiting for Saturday at the track seminar, gathering, pow wow as is appropriate. For me, writing clears my mind and the Travers has been on my mind for a while now. Here goes.

If there was one essential question which needed to be answered in handicapping the Travers what would it be?

Certainly the top three favorites have speed figures (@1+1/8) good enough to win. Note - the ability to win G1 @ 1+1/2 is not the same as doing the same @ 1+1/4. None have won or run competitively at the race distance.

The horses condition is, of course, fundamental. Again the three favorites come in with the same four week spacing. Top trainers and all subject to bouncing from previous big efforts.

Many will fall back on the angle, a sole speed horse is one of the most likely winners in racing. Depending on the start, the consensus is Bayern has a pace edge. I'll add that Albano & Wildcat Red are top competition vs the Jim Dandy bunch.

As Ollie points out Wicked Strong looks a new and improved horse but the Jim Dandy fractions do not impress? If this new & improved version can duel or press Bayern without losing his closing punch, he probably wins.

Tonalist is also a little mysterious. His Belmont win was noteworthy. That was a tough race! I see where Medal Counts fine effort at the Big Sandy was followed by a last place finish in the Haskel. I'm convinced Tonalist can compete @ 1+1/4 but can he catch those likely to be in front of him early if he runs his race?

Mr. Speaker is a wildcard and has to be given a chance to win and exacta @ ml 10/1. We all know the story, he's bred to win this race. But because he is winning on turf what's not broken does not need fixing. That one fail @ GP (when he beat both Wicked Strong & Coup De Grace) against Cairo Prince (at his best) doesn't seem enough of a reason to toss him. Strategy #2.

The good news is the race has a history (at least recently) of some pricey contenders getting into the verticals. So my conclusion is [u]the key question is how do I make money on this race?[/u]

Answer - Trifecta using the three favorites in the top two positions and Mr. Speaker, Charge Now, Viva Majorca or your favorite(s) in 3rd. Strategy #1. Or Super Perfecta with long shots in 4th under the three favorites Chalk Strategy variation #1a.

Just doesn't seem a race which will produce a surprise winner. But very possibly a STAR or a classic duel. Good Luck All.