well, let's handicap...BELMONT! (913 Views)
Posted by:
shanahan (IP Logged)
Date: September 27, 2014 05:51AM
Race 1)
7f for 2 YO - taking 1,2b,3,6,7. 7 has not run yet, but TAPIT with 3 bullets and solid breeding on dam side as well. 3,6 fastest to date. Can't ignore TP/JV on the 1 - yes I'm living in the past with these guys.
Race 2)
5,8 best chance to win. If any SCR, I'll add 11 (tops for Weaver).
Race 3)
singling the 6 - Mott and Rosario, 2nd out. Castellano is on a couple ofContessa horses today, but I'm not using any of them and he's just 11% 2nd out. If 6 SCR, then I'll use the 7 for Weaver/JV - led to the 16th in last.
Race 4)
G@ race with a G1 winner. Even though Jim is nervous about his horse, I see him on the lead unopposed...and gone. good Luck to you. flying to china? You won't need the plane...
Race 5)
fifty shades should be on the lead. Can she hang on? I've dumped SCMaria last two and paid the price. Using 2,3,5.
Race 6)
full field of 13 - 2 are MTO (5&13), so drop them out. A "2" is the fig to beat, and there are 3 that can and should do that. 2,11,& 12. But there is a horse I think is back on his best surface and will be a huge longshot - #8. The 1 is cutting back in distance and would be the one that could beat me.
Race 7)
Nice field of 9. At least 5 solid contenders. SK's gets JV up for Chad and ran 2nd in last two - both grade 1 under Dettori, both went wide. Obvious fav. Chad could land the tri as I see the 6 improving, and the 7 has run 5 straight G1 races - he just hasn't won any of them. Still...3rd off layoff. Using 9 6 7.
Race 8)
I think this is the most even field all day. figure to beat is probably a neg 1. I like 6 to have best chance getting back to his top. Castellano up for Rudy the cheat, but he has won a G1. The 1 has never been worse than 2nd at BEL. Larry Jones is a great filly trainer, and this is a steadily improving TAPIT 3YO. Big test. Jacobson has the 5, but never has run a G1 and was an OClmr in last. 7? No idea what to do with it. Not using the 4 although the wise guys on the radio shows all will. guess it depends on how Jim's horse did in the 4th race. Using 1.2.6.7
Race 9)
Lots of G1 horses here. I'll single the Ramsay's entry. I'll make a straight wager on Medal Count at 10:1 or more - if he loses, it won't be my first loss on him but he will have the early lead. In late pik 4, I'll use entry,2,5.
Race 10 - The Gold Cup!)
Anticipating an early speed dual between 11/12 & since I don't see the 12 having any chance, I'll drop Moreno (11) out for the win. leaves the logical choices - 3,8,9,10. You may think 9,10 are not logical but they are improving & it's not Spring anymore...long gone by the tme that last race goes off.
Best to all - should be a great day with perfect weather. Hate to leave on the 4:40 train back to Manhattan, but ND game awaits.