jerry Wrote:
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> All true but take a look at his sheet in the
> Redboard room tomorrow and, even with Nevin's
> record at Laurel, he still looks overmatched in my
> opinion.

I did take a look at his sheet, and forget the horse
for a moment; this trainer is getting more than her
fair share of new tops and pairs, in several categories.

How does 32% new tops in the last 90 days grab you?

True, it's 8 tops out of 25 starters, but how many head
does Nevin have, anyway? She is getting [i]runners[/i].

Now, back to our friend Hyman Roth...

He ran a 9 at the Spa two races back as the 3-1 favorite,
3 wide around both turns and finishing a non-threatening
5th, about 5 lengths back. How that translates into 20-1.
for essentially the same class and conditions two races
later is beyond me.

Overmatched? Compared to the Rudy horse, who was running 6's,
OK, sure...but the Rudy horse's post position stunk; it made sense
for the public to shop around in this race, and it's no surprise
that quite a few bettors landed on Hyman.

I think you got snookered by a bad ML, and got your hopes up
unnecessarily. Sorry about that. Perform a few smell tests next
time, especially the one where you peruse the horse's previous
off odds in his last 5 or 6 races -- this is a strong indication
of where to start for today's expected price.

(And if it says "Trainer: Nevin, Michelle", fahgedaboudit.)