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Re: Math on this -- Re: Del Mar saturday (658 Views)
Posted by: Rick B. (IP Logged)
Date: November 16, 2014 02:10AM

Those that swear by comparisons between pickers
and parlays will point out that you erred by
comparing $1 and 50 cent picker results to $2
win parlays, and in abstract I would agree...
but I am no fan of these comparisons because
they are built on (other) faulty assumptions:

1. The pools are not indexed to one another, so
the relationships between them (if you believe
it exists) will be imperfect to some degree.

2. Who bets parlays? Most any bettor can afford
a $32 pick-4 play that gets lucky and stabs up
a $7900 payoff...but who among us has the gonads
to pull the trigger on each part of the related
parlay, making a successively larger wager in
each leg?

The last leg is $1180 to win on the #12, Regally
Soul...can you make that bet, the full amount, no
shaving or hedging?

If you can't then the parlay is simply a myth,
and the Pick-x vs. Parlay comparison is BS.

Therefore, the only error you and other pool
cross-checkers are making is self-torture, when
you discover that a given Pick-X payoff is "out
of skew" with the corresponding parlay. It doesn't
mean a damn thing.



Subject Written By Posted
Del Mar saturday (1000 Views) shanahan 11/15/2014 11:55AM
Math on this -- Re: Del Mar saturday (758 Views) SoCalMan2 11/16/2014 12:53AM
Re: Math on this -- Re: Del Mar saturday (658 Views) Rick B. 11/16/2014 02:10AM
Re: Math on this -- Re: Del Mar saturday (602 Views) BitPlayer 11/16/2014 10:01AM
Re: Math on this -- Re: Del Mar saturday (573 Views) SoCalMan2 11/16/2014 11:54AM
Re: Math on this -- Re: Del Mar saturday (577 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/16/2014 04:59PM
Re: Math on this -- Re: Del Mar saturday (533 Views) Mathcapper 11/16/2014 10:51PM
Re: Math on this -- Re: Del Mar saturday (523 Views) SoCalMan2 11/16/2014 11:20PM


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