Re: Math on this -- Re: Del Mar saturday (658 Views)
Posted by:
Rick B. (IP Logged)
Date: November 16, 2014 02:10AM
Those that swear by comparisons between pickers
and parlays will point out that you erred by
comparing $1 and 50 cent picker results to $2
win parlays, and in abstract I would agree...
but I am no fan of these comparisons because
they are built on (other) faulty assumptions:
1. The pools are not indexed to one another, so
the relationships between them (if you believe
it exists) will be imperfect to some degree.
2. Who bets parlays? Most any bettor can afford
a $32 pick-4 play that gets lucky and stabs up
a $7900 payoff...but who among us has the gonads
to pull the trigger on each part of the related
parlay, making a successively larger wager in
each leg?
The last leg is $1180 to win on the #12, Regally
Soul...can you make that bet, the full amount, no
shaving or hedging?
If you can't then the parlay is simply a myth,
and the Pick-x vs. Parlay comparison is BS.
Therefore, the only error you and other pool
cross-checkers are making is self-torture, when
you discover that a given Pick-X payoff is "out
of skew" with the corresponding parlay. It doesn't
mean a damn thing.
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