Michael D. wrote:
>
> Thorograph and Ragozin clearly have a difference in opinion
> regarding the last few derby preps. A question for
> Thorograph... do you guys take into account the fact that
> both Came Home and Harlan's Holiday were ridden quite hard
> for the last three or four furlongs in their final prep?
> Meanwhile, Buddah was reserved until mid stretch by Pat Day.
> If Mccarron and Prado had reserved their horses like Day did,
> and their times were even slower, would you have raised their
> figures? If Day had used Buddah a bit more would you have
> lowered his? It appears as though Ragozin is taking a stand
> here, saying Buhhah has a lot more potential than Came Home
> or Harlan's holiday because he simply has not been used yet,
> while you guys are not concerned with potential, just the
> final time and trip? Is this a fair characterization?

TG--Lots of assumptions in there disguised as questions, but to the degree I can respond--
1. We don't take into account the way horses are ridden.
2. If those horses had run slower FINAL TIMES they would have gotten worse numbers.
3. If Buddha had run a faster FINAL TIME he would have received a better figure.
4. You should ask Ragozin, but neither of us gives a figure based on potential.

It sounds like you are used to betting European races, where there are some very slow paced races and Timeform gives out "potential" figures.



TGJB