Jim-- first, as you and some others know, I was trying to get someone to buy half of Upstart from October through a week before the Holy Bull. I liked him more than any young horse I've recommended (or even seen) since Rachel. But I agree, the only way running that fast that early in the year would have been a plus would be if he was truly a super horse, unlike anything we've seen before. Which is obviously unlikely. Their best (maybe only) move-- which almost nobody does-- would have been not to run him after the Holy Bull until the Fla Derby, let him be a little short that day and try to go into the TC going forward. But from here they have a real problem-- they're not going to train him up to the Derby, and with another start in between he's more likely to go back than not, and be going the wrong way into the TC. If he even gets that far, as MJ says.

Re the figure, I'm not looking forward to doing it. It's worth noting that the horse that got put up probably would have run a little faster if he hadn't been impeded, making it less likely he paired up.